When Pauline Hansen was dis-endorsed by then Liberal Prime Minister John Howard in the 1996 federal election, she was elected anyway. It was the beginning of One Nation.
For the last 30 years, One Nation and Pauline have had the same message, the same ideas, the same campaign as what they started with. Except now, the party is no longer on the fringe. One Nation had an historic win in the Western Australia state by-election in Secret Harbour on August 30. A safe Labor seat, in a safe Labor state, now in the hands of One Nation.
In May, One Nation secured the Federal seat of Farrar at the by-election and earlier in the year the orange army attained lower house seats and a substantial primary vote in the South Australian state election.
These wins are not confined local upheaval. One Nation is deep in the hearts of those who are fed up with the mismanagement and lack of leadership from the coalition and Labor.
When I think of One Nation and this rise, the iconic line from the 1986 film Platoon comes to mind: “The only think that can kill Barnes is Barnes.” The soldier who says this means, forget about doing anything silly to take out Barnes, the adversary amongst their own ranks. He will take care of himself.
The only thing that can kill One Nation, is One Nation. But who is the Barnes within One Nation ranks? There’s been a few over the years.
There are thirty Senators of One Nation that have quit the party since 1998. Coincidentally the same number as a platoon. It started in the early days when One Nation co-founder David Oldfield left the party after a huge falling out. Mark Latham was another high-profile departure. Senators Rodney Culleton and Brian Burston left citing “un-Australian behaviour” and differences with management.
Maybe One Nation’s next Sargeant Barnes could be Barnaby Joyce. The courting and signing up of former National Barnaby Joyce came with a dinner-for-two of Wagyu steaks on a sandwich press – media gold. Or could it be Cory Bernadi in South Australia who has been remarkably quiet since attaining an upper house seat?
If history is anything to go by then the fall will come as quickly as the rise.
Voting One Nation was a protest vote for so long, but now the numbers are thrusting it into major party status. Mismanagement, lack of organisation, ego-driven characters, questionable ethics and policies have plagued One Nation. No more excuses or failures of the past, they need to do better as a party. But can the egos within One Nation remain in check to show solidarity and unity? So far, so good.
While the majors were fighting over leadership, misusing tax payer funded flights, navigating the fallout of the Bondi shooting, the cost-of-living crisis, energy and fuel security, Pauline Hanson just kept hitting home her immigration policies. She has maintained the same position for thirty years and it is striking a chord with voters. If Labor and the coalition didn’t know they were at war, after the results of Secret Harbour, Farrar, and the South Australia state election they would want to get their act together quickly.
The next battle will be in Victoria, with a state election in November, then we will be able to properly see One Nation’s orange frontline. The only thing that will stop One Nation is One Nation.
By Nic Hayes, Managing Director of Media Stable.
